Over the night
Chance Democrats win control, as results come in
The night so far
What the count is telling the model
Senate races
Shaded by each side's chance of winning. Ringed states have been called.
House
All 435 seats, ordered by the chance Democrats win each one
Races
Competitive races first
| Race | Count | Projected final margin (80% range) | Chance of winning |
|---|
How this works
Before any votes
Each race starts from a prior: the 2024 presidential margin on the current district lines, shifted by the national generic-ballot polling average, plus incumbency. Senate and governor priors also blend polling averages and forecaster ratings.
As votes come in
For statewide races, each county's count is compared with how it voted in 2024, separately for mail/early and election-day ballots where AP reports them. Each type's swing is applied to that type's vote still outstanding in each county. House races are projected from the district count and AP's expected vote. The less vote that's in, the wider the uncertainty.
Everything is connected
Races share a national swing and a state swing, so early results in one place update the outlook everywhere. A shared count-bias term covers early ballots that lean one way being counted first, so the model doesn't overreact to them.
Seats and control
The model draws 10,000 joint outcomes to get seat totals. Races called by the results provider are locked in. Democrats need 51 Senate seats, because the Vice President breaks 50–50 ties. Independents count with the non-Republican side; Nebraska's Dan Osborn hasn't said who he'd caucus with.